What
is happening with Real Estate in Napa Valley right now?
Everyone is asking the same question and the answer is not easy.
Which
price range? What area?
The news
media paints the Real Estate market with a broad brush and all properties from
coast to coast are lumped together and covered by the by broad statements like
“the prices are going down”, the “foreclosures are up” and “now is not a good
time to sell”.
It takes
a savvy investor to see through the fog and exercise independent critical
thinking and not follow the pack. Smart people shop when there is the least
competition and see an opportunity when others don’t.
For
example: if prices are down in a particular area by 10% across the board and
you want to sell, is it a lousy time to sell? Not necessarily. Whether it
is good time or a bad time will depend on what you want to accomplish.
If you
want to move up and your current home had a market value of $500,000 a couple
of years ago, and now has a market value of $450,000, most people get stuck on
the idea that they “lost” $50,000 in appreciation, and they will stay put,
even though the family needs to move.
The
savvy investor looks at the TOTAL PICTURE, not just the sale of their current
home, but also the cost of purchasing the replacement home. With the prices
down, the $800,000 home of a few years ago may now be purchased for $720,000?
Looking at the total scenario, the sale and the purchase, is that not a net
gain of $30,000 when all is said and done?
Also,
the new property taxes will be based on the purchase price of $720,000 instead
of $800,000 giving an additional continued savings to the new owner. So was
this a bad time to sell? No. It was a good time to sell because it was a
good time to buy. The gain came at the buying end.
An
overly simplified example, but it points out the fact that you have to
evaluate your personal circumstances and see what opportunities lie in the
current market. Donald Trump has always maintained that there are
opportunities in every market and while he does not make my “hero of all time”
list, he has made of a lot of money and he did not do that by being stupid.
He believes in opportunity in every market and we believe that too.
The
market is constantly changing and different clients benefit from different
conditions in the market.
What if
you are buying down? Using the same example as above, is that not a net loss
of $30,000? Potentially yes, but with the bountiful inventory currently
available, you can take your time in shopping and looking for the home in the
best location and the best benefits that will give you the most joy in the
years to come. It is better than having to compete with every
Tom-Dick-and-Harry in an almost auction type atmosphere that we had a few
years ago. You have choices, and time to make up your mind about that most
important purchase: your home.
A couple
of years ago analytical people did not stand a chance in the fierce
competitive atmosphere of mobs of people rushing to buy a home, anywhere, at
almost any price. There was no time to think, to evaluate and decide. If you
wanted to buy, you had to buy now and move fast and pay over the asking price
if you really wanted to own a home. It was a competition, not a regular
process for buying a home.
Today
the market welcomes the buyer who is cautious, who wants to think things
through and understand the process before proceeding. Teachers, engineers,
accountants, first time buyers, investors…this is the market. There is time
to evaluate what you get for your money; there is time to do a thorough
analysis of your personal tax-benefits of property ownership; you can shop
around and make your selection without 10 people breathing down your neck and
rushing you into a hasty decision; you have time to choose the best loan for
your needs so you will not become one of the distressed borrowers that seem to
make the headlines today. You will have time to study and understand what you
are signing. You have TIME to decide.
Financing is still available at low interest rates, and there are plenty of
loan programs available. You have CHOICES in loan programs and the rates are
historically still quite low, mostly under 7% with no points.
High
inventory, motivated sellers, low interest rates…How can that be a bad market?
30 years
ago Napa homes sold for $45,000-$60,000 in areas of North Napa. Looking back,
would it have been a mistake to buy one those homes? Maybe even a couple?
Real
Estate is a long term investment, and looking forward 7 to 10 years, we still
believe it to be a good decision. Stocks may loose their value down to almost
zero…real estate has shown that even with the ups and downs, it still leads
the pack as a sound long-term investment.
So, what
is the point of this letter?
Simply
put: THINK FOR YOURSELF! Look at your personal circumstances and decide if
real estate will make sense for you and then talk to us. We will give you
information that will help you decide what is the best decision for you.
We
encourage you to call us for current the statistics, market information, the
property details, and all the other information that will help you in your
search for answers.
We know
the lenders who will explain things to you, we can advise you on the
inspections to get to get a good picture of the property condition and we can
guide you through the complicated sales process so you will end up where you
want to be.
